Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
